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NASCAR heads to Daytona International Speedway the Coke Zero Sugar 400, for its Independence Day weekend convention. Sunday afternoon’s race includes the second race run under the new superspeedway principles package.
The first, at Talladega, made fantastic racing very similar to classic restrictor plate races of yesteryear.
I expect the exact same for Daytona, where the draft should play a massive role, keeping automobiles packed closely together. These racing conditions consistently lead to fear of the”Big One” where several cars — sometimes numbering in the double digits — are carried out in one big accident.
The prospect of calamity and the draft create longshot worth relevant at Daytona.
Ignore practice times when handicapping a superspeedway race — that the draft renders practice irrelevant. Instead, start looking for motorists that have good superspeedway background and might be undervalued by the marketplace.
RELATED: Upgraded odds for Daytona | Full schedule for Daytona
Only 1 driver can win, but numerous longshots have chances at top-three, top-five and top-10 finishes.
Let’s get in the best futures bets for tonight’s Coke Zero Sugar 400.
RICKY STENHOUSE JR. (+2000) TO WIN
William Hill is offering a generous price on Stenhouse, a two-time superspeedway winner. Stenhouse is an incredibly aggressive driver who enjoys to direct these types of races. Stenhouse led twice in Daytona and 3 times at Talladega this year, confirming his drive to stand out front.
In 2019, outside of superspeedways, Stenhouse has been strong at the races in which the draft matters most — 1.5-mile monitors at night or using reduced tire wear. Now we’re at a race in which the draft plays with the best function.
It is reasonable to wager Stenhouse down to +1500 to win.
ARIC ALMIROLA (+2200) TO WIN
Both of Almirola’s Dragon Power NASCAR Cup Series wins came at superspeedways. He even won the 2014 variant of the race, and was leading the past year’s Daytona 500 coming to the checkered flag before contact Austin Dillon.
Almirola hasn’t had quite the time he had last year, finishing in a worse place in nine of his 17 races, while currently residing 11th in the point standings.
But, Almirola led 27 laps at Talladega but finished only ninth because the Chevrolet team plan placed its automobiles in a better position to control the end of the race.
I’d bet him down to +1600.
ERIK JONES (+3000) TO WIN
Jones now sits out the playoff picture at 17th in the point standings. I believe his subpar performance is driving his long chances at MGM possessions.
But, Jones is a fantastic superspeedway racer using a win-or-go-home record in these types of races. He’s either crashed outside or completed within the top nine in every superspeedway race of his Cup career except for one.
Not merely are his playoff hopes on the line, but his potential at Joe Gibbs Racing is in doubt. This race might just be the antidote Jones needs in a year of doubt and struggle.
There’s value down here to +2500.
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