East Area

Top seed prognosis: According to the FiveThirtyEight model, high seed Duke has the best chance of advancing to the Final Four at the whole field (53 percent probability) as well as the best likelihood of winning the national title (19 percent).
The Blue Devils are led by four soon-to-be first-round draft picks, such as Zion Williamson, among the most significant abilities in recent memory. Duke is a walking highlight reel to the offensive end and much stingier on defense than many may realize. This is one of Mike Krzyzewski’s most-balanced teams and jobs to become his first since 2010 to rank inside the top six at Ken Pomeroy’s adjusted offense and defense metrics. That team won the national title.1
This team lacks, however, is touch along the perimeter. Duke shoots a grisly 30.2 percent from outside the arc, the worst mark among tournament-qualifying teams. Within an offensive age increasingly dominated by distance and perimeter scoring, the Blue Devils could buck the trend punishing the rim.
On the other side of the area is that the winner of the Big Ten conference championship, Michigan State. As their benefit, the No. 2 Spartans have the honour of a potential matchup from the top overall seed in the Elite Eight. Head coach Tom Izzo was none too pleased. The Spartans have been pummeled by injuries but remain one of the most balanced teams in the country, ranking inside the top eight in Pomeroy’s adjusted offense and defense metrics.
Sneaky Final Four select: No. 4 Virginia Tech. Led by the star pairing of Kerry Blackshear Jr. and Nickeil Alexander-Walker, the Hokies are a balanced squad that ranks among Pomeroy’s Top 25 teams on both offense and defense. Although they have dropped eight times, just two of these were by double-digits. Virginia Tech also includes a not-altogether-unfriendly attraction, with exceptionally winnable opening games against Saint Louis (87 percent) and the Mississippi State-Liberty winner (63 percent) before most probably running to Duke’s juggernaut. We give the Hokies a respectable 25 percent chance from the Blue Devils — and a 54 percent chance against whoever emerges from the bottom of the area if they do manage to knock off Duke.
Don’t bet : No. 3 LSU. With trainer Will Wade embroiled in a pay-for-play scandal and his group probably overvalued as a 3-seed, the Bayou Bengals may be ripe for an upset in this particular tournament. They ranked only 18th in Pomeroy’s ratings — about the caliber of a No. 5 seed — thanks in large part to a defense which didn’t even decode the country’s top 60 in corrected efficacy. (This showed up at the 51 second-half points they permitted to Florida while losing their first game of the SEC tournament.) Their NCAA path isn’t very simple, either: Yale is no pushover for a No. 14 seed, nor is potential second-round opponent Maryland, also we give the Tigers a mere 26 percent chance of beating Michigan State when the groups meet in the Sweet Sixteen. That is easily the lowest-rated top-three seed within the area.
Cinderella watch: No. 11 Belmont. The East is top-heavy, together with Duke and Michigan State soaking up most of the Last Four odds. But the Bruins are still an intriguing lower-seeded team due to an impressive crime led by do-everything swingman Dylan Windler. According to Pomeroy, Belmont ranks 20th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency (and second nationwide in raw points per game behind Gonzaga), whereas Windler was one of just 3 players nationwide to average 20 points and 10 rebounds per game. Even though the Bruins do have to acquire a play-in match against Temple only to produce the area of 64 — we provide them a 59 percent opportunity — they’d have an extremely competitive 39 percent likelihood of upsetting Maryland in the first round and a much greater chance against the LSU/Yale winner.
Player to watch: Cassius Winston, Michigan State
Three decades back, zzo stated he thought his 6-foot-1 freshman would be Michigan State’s best passer because Magic Johnson. The Spartans’ do-everything point guard — one of the best facilitators from the nation — is validating his trainer’s comment. Just Murray State’s Ja Morant, a surefire lottery pick in this year’s draft, has a higher assist rate than Winston (46.0 percent). And behind Winston, the Spartans assist on the maximum speed of field goals in the country.
The junior also happens to be Izzo’s top scorer and one of the nation’s greatest perimeter threats, shooting better than 40% from beyond the arc. As harms have relentlessly sapped the Spartans of the on-court production, Winston has raised his game to compensate. As he set it to The Athletic,”I must do a whole lot for my team to win.”
Likeliest first-round upsets: No. 9 Central Florida over No. 8 VCU (47 percent); No. 11 Belmont* over No. 6 Maryland (39 percent); No. 10 Minnesota over No. 7 Louisville (34 percent)

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