This weekend we’ve got an early card Sunday morning (10:30am ET). I really do like these ancient cards so I can wake up and have a DraftKings perspiration and go out and revel in the remainder of the day when the struggles are over. This Sunday’s card will take place in Hamburg, Germany and there are plenty of fighters making their UFC debut. For this reason, I believe we should have a big edge this week if we place in the work. Most casual players will not be doing research on those names they’ve not heard and will only be throwing lineups trying to get lucky and hit a huge score. I’ll personally be pursuing the large $15k top prize in the $8 GPP in addition to the Qualifiers. The majority of my investment will be in money games, mainly H2Hs, but I’ll be taking numerous shots at those huge prizes. Here are a few plays I like this week in Addition to my fade of this week:
Cash Game play of the week — Stack (Anthony Smith $8,700 AND Shogun Rua $7,500)
It is an arduous card that Sunday and I believe we will see a good deal of people making mistakes in money games. Any time I believe I can guarantee a complete 100+ points in a struggle, I like to pile it in my cash games and lock in those factors. I think this battle will be a fun one and I highly doubt it belongs to the scorecards. I believe we can see multiple knockdowns too that would help, but I believe we easily get over 100+ points combined with these two men. Let us let everyone else make the errors and we could lock at a 100+ points and a triumph, then we just have to locate another 3 wins we’re confident in.
GPP drama of the week — Manny Bermudez ($9,200)
I believe that this matchup was set up for Bermudez a win. He has quite a slick submission game and when this fight goes to the floor I presume he can pick up advance points quickly and locate a submission. Grant has had issues with submission defense in his profession and even when he is winning on the toes, he still shoots for takedowns every struggle. I believe if Manny can’t get the takedown himself, Grant will eventually go to it himself and it will cost him. I think we can observe a 1st round entry here which should easily get the 10x+ we are searching for in his $9.2k price label.
Underdog play of the week — Shogun Rua ($7,500)
If Shogun can win this fight he will easily pay off this price . He’s got 100-point upside and with a $7.5k salary that will certainly put him on the winning lineup if he can get there. Anthony Smith has been knocked more times than Shogun and has fought much worse rivalry. I wouldn’t be shocked if Shogun can get a KO here against Smith, who’s taking this fight on short notice. Shogun has noticeably slowed down in the last couple of years but I believe that he has enough in the tank to pull off an upset victory . I do want exposure to both men in GPPs, however I think you want some vulnerability to Rua if you are making numerous lineups.
Fade of the week — Nick Hein ($8,500)
I have quite a few fades this week and I am going with a smaller player pool in hopes of my own selections being correct and that I will hit the ideal combo. It’s hard to choose one favourite fade this week however I will select Nick Hein. I do think Nick Hein will win this battle, and I believe he’ll use takedowns to acquire the choice win here. Thus, you would think that seems great on DraftKings because wrestling racks up points. But, he doesn’t chain together takedowns and he usually ends up with just 1 or 2 in his UFC wins. He does not have much completing ability and I don’t see him getting a entry. However, I think we’ll see 2-3 takedowns him and here grinding his way into a Unanimous Decision victory just as we have seen from him previously. Hein includes 4 UFC wins and these are his DraftKings game logs for those wins: 53 points, 58 points, 65 points, and 71 points. At $8.5k, I am not interested in getting any DK investment on Hein with these scores. That’s why he is my fade of the week.
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